Sunday, October 26, 2008

The Auction Draft Results

As my friends and I progress in the fantasy sports world, we've decided to venture into the exciting world of auction drafting. We've all talked about it in recent years, but with ESPN offering free customizable leagues auction league, we couldn't at least try it.

This draft was considered a "year zero" for our league. What we did was to allow players from our head to head league to keep one player at a significant cost ($50) to be held over. In this league, we will be able to keep up to 5 players, with each player costing $5 each year the player is kept under contract. Teams were able to spend $200 to fill 16 slots. Here are the results of my team (with the round acquired before the name followed by the cost):

  • Keeper: Dwight Howard ($50)- Yes, he is defintiely NOT worth $50, but he's one of my favorites. I'll be able to keep him another year or two tops before his contract is too cumbersome with the $200 cap. Super deluxe in the FG%, boards, blocks, FTM, and turnovers

  • 2.11: Carmelo Anthony ($28)- A bit overpriced for my taste, but I did it to protect him from being on a team that went hogwild spending in the first 2 rounds and had an overabundance of talent. He's a scorer and does decently across the board, hopefully he does more this year.

  • 4.2: Chris Bosh ($23)- For a young, talented star, I think he was worth the $23. While other teams had more players, I needed to start getting players that are the nucleus of the team. Scoring, boards, FTM with some blocks are CB4's forte.

  • 7.11: Richard Jefferson ($11)- I went silent for a LONG time. I was in on a few shootouts, but decided to pull up on a few of them because I didn't see the value there. RJ should be good in points and FTM, but hopefully he can do better in assists and rebounds than last year.

  • 8.10: Raymond Felton ($11)- To me, $11 is well spent on a young PG with upside and a talented team surrounding him (JRich, Gerald Wallace, Emeka, Sean May). He should be very solid in assists and steals with some upside in 3PTM.

  • 8.11: Jermaine O'Neal ($14)- I overspend here in a bidding war, but his ability to put up 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks is intriguing. I'm thinking that Toronto should be pretty good this year (sicne I have Bosh also).

  • 8.12: Rajon Rondo ($11)- As you can see I started spending the money I had right her, making plays on 3 consecutive players. Rondo is Mookie Blalock for the 21st century. I expect that you'll see a few of those 10 point, 11 rebounds, 11 assist (or 10 steals) triple doubles in the coming years.

  • 9.9: Marvin Williams ($8)- I'm hoping that he becomes like a poor man's Carmel Anthony, with a three. The upside is there because he can score, but he needs to put up the rebounds, assists and defensive numbers to make him more valuable.

  • 11.2: Thaddeus Young ($6)- One of those upside talents we all look for. Yes, his scoring should be down, but he could be a nice source of rebounds, steals, and FG%. I guess when coupled with the aformentioned Marvin Williams, you could make a pretty solid all around player.

  • 11.4: Nick Collison ($4)- With it being this late in the draft, this is also a good value pick to boost my rebounding numbers.

  • 12.2: Chris Duhon ($2)- If he can become half of what Steve Nash was under D'Antoni's tutelage, $2 is an absolute steal. He should be decent as a space filler in assists and steals, with serviceable points, rebounds and threes.

  • 12.3: OJ Mayo ($6)- Oddly enough, a lot of the rookies fell to the late rounds. I may have overspend a little because another owner wanted him, but I think that he should be able to score in the league and put up enough stats to make him the rookie of the year this year.

  • 12.5: Charlie Villanueva ($6)- Again, I went with a team tandem (CB4 & ONeal, RJ and Villanueva). Charlie V should be in for a good year if he can stay healthy and bring across the boards stats to the table.

  • 12.6: Travis Outlaw ($1)- Personally, I thought he would go for at least a couple bucks more, but I gladly accepted this bargain. Like Villanueva, he is an across the board contributor that could post better numbers with more minutes.

  • 13.4: Russell Westbrook ($1)- He's got the size that could make him into an elite PG. This is not the year. At a buck (and him being $6 next year) this is his audition to see if he can become good (or great) in the next few years.

I had $19 left over from the draft, way too much to have left holding. I probably needed that 4th star, and because of it, I don't have the elite talent of other teams, but I should do ok. Yes, it's not a winning team, but they should be competitive. This year's auction draft was more of a dry run and to set values going into next year.

As I look at this team at this point, I would probably keep Howard ($55), Westbrook ($6), Chris Bosh ($28), Rondo ($16), and Marvin Williams ($13) for next years team. The majority of my players on this team are very young, so I do have a lot of choices when we have to announce our keepers for next year.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

My 2008-09 H2H Team: The Fun Police

This is the third year of our keeper head to head league. It's a 12 team league with 16 players per team, so drafts are pretty deep. We held four over from last year. The typical scoring categories (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, 3PTM, TO, FG%) with the exclusion of FT% and the inclusion of FT made.

Keepers:
  • Dwight Howard- A no brainer in this format because his FT% does not automatically lose it for you every week. Dominant in rebounds, blocks, and FG%; very good in points and FTM.
  • Kevin Garnett- Has devolved from a fantasy super stud to merely a star. Yes, he will get you 18 pts/10 reb/4 ast/ 1 stl/ 1 blk on 50% FG% and solid FTM numbers (at the minimum), but the 22/13/5 salad days are gone for good.
  • Lamar Odom- Not necessarily keeper worthy, but considering what I had on this team, he was one of the better alternatives. Unfortunately, he may be coming off the bench this year, but he should still get decent 16/8/3/1/1 numbers as a baseline.
  • Chris Kaman- A lot of my friends don't like the Kaveman, but I'm on him this year. No deferring to Brand and Camby is a high post guy, so all he has to worry about is avoiding injury this year.

We started the open drafting come Round 5, I picked 8th:

  • Round 5: Mike Miller- I don't really know why I drafted him here. I really wanted a PG, but didn't want to reach for a Mo Williams or Devin Harris. And for some reason, I didn't want to grab Dunleavy or Hedo even though they're all similar players. I think he should do well, 18/6/3 with 2 3PTM.
  • Round 6: Jermaine O'Neal- A slight reach here with the 65th pick, but I expect that he should return to form in Toronto playing along side Chris Bosh. Look for 18/10/2 with 2 blocks and a lot of FTM
  • Round 7: Tracy McGrady- Ugh... I really wanted Deng here, but he was taken just before TMac. With O'Neal, I'm hoping both will play 70+ games a piece (not combined). If he can play, 22/5/5 with decent peripherals is nothing to sneeze at.
  • Round 8: Rajon Rondo- Tony Parker was still there, but at this point, scoring isn't my priority. Rondo is better in steals and should improve his assist totals as well, not to mention he rebounds very well for his position.
  • Round 9: Marcus Williams- A reach this early. I was expecting he would win the GS PG job with Monta Ellis out, but it looks like he's merely a backup. He's got skills, but needs run.
  • Round 10: Mike Conley- I like this pick. A good value for a PG with a lot of upside on a bad team. He has competition from Kyle Lowry and Crittenon, but if he plays well, he'll play. Period.
  • Round 11: Monta Ellis- After a not so good mid rounds, I think I get huge value from Monta in the 11th round. If he comes back healthy after the 30 game suspension, he would be a huge scoring boost at the All Star break.
  • Round 12: Travis Outlaw- With Martell Webster out for a while, he could provide solid across the board numbers: 15 /6 with 1 ast, stl, blk, and three.
  • Round 13: Jason Maxiell- If he can get more playing time, he could be a rebounding and block monster. But right now, he's relagated to being a spot fantasy starter with upside.
  • Round 14: Shaquille O'Neal- He's no longer dominant but he can still putup decent numbers. And being drafted in round 14, there's very little investment. Low risk, decent reward, never a bad thing.
  • Round 15: Linus Kleiza- He's on a high octane offense and shoots the three well and also rebounds. At worst the sixth man on the Nuggets.
  • Round 16: Anderson Varejao- He's free agent fodder. As of this post (10/23), he's already been dropped and Sean May was picked up because May rebounds as well, but has a better chance to score more with the Bobcats.

Overall, I have production from top to bottom. With daily player moves, this should help and keep my numbers high. Marcus Williams looks like a big midround mistake, but getting Conley and Monta Ellis were good value picks. I'm not a favorite in this league, but if my injury-prone players can stay relatively healthy, I'll be a player.

Let's just get right into it...

Yes, this is the first post of the FSMP, but with less than 6 days from the opening tip, I'm pretty sure a lot of you right now are scouring the internet for jewels of information for your upcoming NBA fantasy drafts. And I don't blame you... tons of site are now starting to charge for info or are lagging behind what you really need. Or you're probably not getting a lot from the "Talentless Mr. Roto" podcasts over there on ESPN because he's so busy fawning over Rachel Nichols and letting you know how you should pick up Steve Slaton and JT O'Sullivan if they're available in your league (yeah, ok... in week 8?)

You all know who the studs are going to be, but what wins you championships and your well deserved Yoohoo showers (mmmm... chocolately, dairy free drink of the gods...) are your mid and late round picks. so let's get it going, shall we?

Point Guards: So we're into round 5, you just saw JKidd, Billups, and Mo Williams go in the 4th, with the auto drafting team picking up Arenas... what do you do?
  • Raymond Felton- I'm pretty high on this guy, he looks solid. Decent numbers from a time share last year; young, with upside. Marginally better numbers than last year, with a slight bump in FG%
  • Andre Miller- An old vet that has weapons at his disposal in Philly. The scoring will drop, but look for his assists to hover around 8.
  • Devin Harris- Another youngster with upside. Expect across the board increased with a decrease in his FG%.
  • Tony Parker- Mr. Eva Longoria should pick up some of the scoring slack of Manu's, but I'm thinking the rest of his numbers will remain the same.
  • Mike Bibby- He should do very well after acclimating to Atlanta's wide open offense. Look for a rise in assists and threes if he can stay healthy.

If your team can handle waiting around for Monta Ellis, he could be a steal in the mid to late rounds of the draft. Randy Foye could develop into a poor man's DWade as early as this year. Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Kirk Hinrich could be there in the 9th-11th rounds, true value for these guys.

Shooting Guards: Unlike point guards, the two isn't as coveted, especially once you get past the first ten or so. More often than not, you'd be better served drafting a couple PGs and sticking them as your SG and combo G positions, but here are a few that could help:

  • Jamal Crawford- If he's here in the 5th, grab him without hesitation. I'm thinking that others will take players like Ray Allen or Michael Redd ahead of him, but he's much more valuable than both of those guys.
  • Tracy McGrady- I hate this guy (but I can't NOT draft him!!!) but if he stays healthy (read: 70 games), he is a steal in the 7th-9th rounds.
  • Kevin Durant- I'm not sure if he'll ever develop into the TMac clone we saw at Texas, but he should start to really score a lot starting this year.
  • Francisco Garcia- Last year, he came close to putting up the vaunted 1 steal/1 block/ 1 trey line. I'm thinking with an opportunity, he should.

The rest of the options are pretty much personal preference: Ben Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, Jason Terry, Rip Hamilton. May as well grab another PG or a swing SF.

Small Forwards: With your mid to late round SF, you'll be able to mix and match according to what you're deficient in. There is a mish mash of threes that will be available come round 5.

  • Mike Miller- He'll be the three point shooter you need if you're hurting for treys. On Minnesota, he will also chip in with solid scoring, rebound, and assist totals
  • Hedo Turkoglu/ Mike Dunleavy (interchangeable to me)- I'm not really on either bandwagon, but they'll definitely get theirs. Come rounds 5-7, they're worth the slight gamble.
  • Gerald Wallace- If he can stay healthy (and that's a big IF), he brings everything you need (scoring, steals, blocks, and even treys). 70+ games and you got yourself a deal in the 5th or 6th!
  • Luol Deng- Had a down year due to injuries, but he should bounce back. He will definitely get his run on that incredibly deep Bulls roster, so draft with confidence.
  • Richard Jefferson- He should have a lot of freedom similar to his Nets days without JKidd. Lots of stats, but probably a rise in turnovers and a drop in FG%.

Josh Howard is there if you need scoring and boards, Andrei Kirilenko could bounce back as well. And Al Thornton and Travis Outlaw could be late round steal.

Power Forwards: I enjoy drafting the power forward, often to my detriment, but they can get you the stats your SF or your C can't get.

  • LaMarcus Aldridge- Not the rebounder or shot blocker you'd like, but he will defintiely score a lot and be worthy of a 5th round pick.
  • Al Harrington- If he boarded like he used to, he would be in the third round with all his threes. But he plays small now, but he's defintely a steal in the mid rounds.
  • David Lee- A hot buy since the implementation of D'Antoni offense in to the Knicks' system. The only willing and able rebounder on that team and will run, scoring easy buckets.
  • Charlie Villanueva- Once a future star, merely the 3rd or 4th option in Milwaukee. But when he gets time, he's another one of those 1 steal/1 block/1 trey kinda guys.
  • Troy Murphy- He gets the boards, can score, and hit treys. No complaints from this guy and you can get him pretty late!
  • Kevin Love- I'm thinking he's a poor man's Brad Miller. Decent boards, some points, not too many blocks, but he'll drop a lot of dimes on Al Jefferson and Mike Miller.

Some youngster you might want to keep in mind are Paul Millsap, Jason Maxiell, and Andray Blatche. They're all rebounder/shotblockers types that need more court time.

Centers: In a way, it will be hard to speculate what's available center-wise. With Dwight Howard going anywhere from the middle of the first to a mid third rounder, many of these players will be available. Essentially what I'm saying is that you can find value with your centers so watch how your draft is going and pick appropriately.

  • Jermaine O'Neal- I'm on this bandwagon. I think it will be a renaissance year for Jermaine paired with CB4. 18/10/2 blocks sound about right to me. And he can be had at or around TMac territory.
  • Mehmet Okur- He's underappreciated because he's not a sexy pick. But he scores, shoots threes and rebounds solidly.
  • Al Horford- A double double machine already, if he can add a little bit more blocking, he'd be drafted much earlier than rounds 8-10.
  • Zydruas Ilgauskas- So after all the dust settles and the sexy picks are gone; you've forgotten to fill that second C slot. He falls to you. He's alright, he doesn't hurt you at all!
  • Shaquille O'Neal- In rounds 11-13, as you're wrapping up, this is a total respect pick, but he can still give you 15 and 8 with 2 blocks. The upside has been replaced by a gargantuan backside, but you really could do worse with your end of the draft picks (read: Matt Bonner)

Well, so ends my mid-late round picks, I'll be posting how my keeper league draft from this past Sunday went in the next coule of days... so until then...