Thursday, October 23, 2008

Let's just get right into it...

Yes, this is the first post of the FSMP, but with less than 6 days from the opening tip, I'm pretty sure a lot of you right now are scouring the internet for jewels of information for your upcoming NBA fantasy drafts. And I don't blame you... tons of site are now starting to charge for info or are lagging behind what you really need. Or you're probably not getting a lot from the "Talentless Mr. Roto" podcasts over there on ESPN because he's so busy fawning over Rachel Nichols and letting you know how you should pick up Steve Slaton and JT O'Sullivan if they're available in your league (yeah, ok... in week 8?)

You all know who the studs are going to be, but what wins you championships and your well deserved Yoohoo showers (mmmm... chocolately, dairy free drink of the gods...) are your mid and late round picks. so let's get it going, shall we?

Point Guards: So we're into round 5, you just saw JKidd, Billups, and Mo Williams go in the 4th, with the auto drafting team picking up Arenas... what do you do?
  • Raymond Felton- I'm pretty high on this guy, he looks solid. Decent numbers from a time share last year; young, with upside. Marginally better numbers than last year, with a slight bump in FG%
  • Andre Miller- An old vet that has weapons at his disposal in Philly. The scoring will drop, but look for his assists to hover around 8.
  • Devin Harris- Another youngster with upside. Expect across the board increased with a decrease in his FG%.
  • Tony Parker- Mr. Eva Longoria should pick up some of the scoring slack of Manu's, but I'm thinking the rest of his numbers will remain the same.
  • Mike Bibby- He should do very well after acclimating to Atlanta's wide open offense. Look for a rise in assists and threes if he can stay healthy.

If your team can handle waiting around for Monta Ellis, he could be a steal in the mid to late rounds of the draft. Randy Foye could develop into a poor man's DWade as early as this year. Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo, and Kirk Hinrich could be there in the 9th-11th rounds, true value for these guys.

Shooting Guards: Unlike point guards, the two isn't as coveted, especially once you get past the first ten or so. More often than not, you'd be better served drafting a couple PGs and sticking them as your SG and combo G positions, but here are a few that could help:

  • Jamal Crawford- If he's here in the 5th, grab him without hesitation. I'm thinking that others will take players like Ray Allen or Michael Redd ahead of him, but he's much more valuable than both of those guys.
  • Tracy McGrady- I hate this guy (but I can't NOT draft him!!!) but if he stays healthy (read: 70 games), he is a steal in the 7th-9th rounds.
  • Kevin Durant- I'm not sure if he'll ever develop into the TMac clone we saw at Texas, but he should start to really score a lot starting this year.
  • Francisco Garcia- Last year, he came close to putting up the vaunted 1 steal/1 block/ 1 trey line. I'm thinking with an opportunity, he should.

The rest of the options are pretty much personal preference: Ben Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, Jason Terry, Rip Hamilton. May as well grab another PG or a swing SF.

Small Forwards: With your mid to late round SF, you'll be able to mix and match according to what you're deficient in. There is a mish mash of threes that will be available come round 5.

  • Mike Miller- He'll be the three point shooter you need if you're hurting for treys. On Minnesota, he will also chip in with solid scoring, rebound, and assist totals
  • Hedo Turkoglu/ Mike Dunleavy (interchangeable to me)- I'm not really on either bandwagon, but they'll definitely get theirs. Come rounds 5-7, they're worth the slight gamble.
  • Gerald Wallace- If he can stay healthy (and that's a big IF), he brings everything you need (scoring, steals, blocks, and even treys). 70+ games and you got yourself a deal in the 5th or 6th!
  • Luol Deng- Had a down year due to injuries, but he should bounce back. He will definitely get his run on that incredibly deep Bulls roster, so draft with confidence.
  • Richard Jefferson- He should have a lot of freedom similar to his Nets days without JKidd. Lots of stats, but probably a rise in turnovers and a drop in FG%.

Josh Howard is there if you need scoring and boards, Andrei Kirilenko could bounce back as well. And Al Thornton and Travis Outlaw could be late round steal.

Power Forwards: I enjoy drafting the power forward, often to my detriment, but they can get you the stats your SF or your C can't get.

  • LaMarcus Aldridge- Not the rebounder or shot blocker you'd like, but he will defintiely score a lot and be worthy of a 5th round pick.
  • Al Harrington- If he boarded like he used to, he would be in the third round with all his threes. But he plays small now, but he's defintely a steal in the mid rounds.
  • David Lee- A hot buy since the implementation of D'Antoni offense in to the Knicks' system. The only willing and able rebounder on that team and will run, scoring easy buckets.
  • Charlie Villanueva- Once a future star, merely the 3rd or 4th option in Milwaukee. But when he gets time, he's another one of those 1 steal/1 block/1 trey kinda guys.
  • Troy Murphy- He gets the boards, can score, and hit treys. No complaints from this guy and you can get him pretty late!
  • Kevin Love- I'm thinking he's a poor man's Brad Miller. Decent boards, some points, not too many blocks, but he'll drop a lot of dimes on Al Jefferson and Mike Miller.

Some youngster you might want to keep in mind are Paul Millsap, Jason Maxiell, and Andray Blatche. They're all rebounder/shotblockers types that need more court time.

Centers: In a way, it will be hard to speculate what's available center-wise. With Dwight Howard going anywhere from the middle of the first to a mid third rounder, many of these players will be available. Essentially what I'm saying is that you can find value with your centers so watch how your draft is going and pick appropriately.

  • Jermaine O'Neal- I'm on this bandwagon. I think it will be a renaissance year for Jermaine paired with CB4. 18/10/2 blocks sound about right to me. And he can be had at or around TMac territory.
  • Mehmet Okur- He's underappreciated because he's not a sexy pick. But he scores, shoots threes and rebounds solidly.
  • Al Horford- A double double machine already, if he can add a little bit more blocking, he'd be drafted much earlier than rounds 8-10.
  • Zydruas Ilgauskas- So after all the dust settles and the sexy picks are gone; you've forgotten to fill that second C slot. He falls to you. He's alright, he doesn't hurt you at all!
  • Shaquille O'Neal- In rounds 11-13, as you're wrapping up, this is a total respect pick, but he can still give you 15 and 8 with 2 blocks. The upside has been replaced by a gargantuan backside, but you really could do worse with your end of the draft picks (read: Matt Bonner)

Well, so ends my mid-late round picks, I'll be posting how my keeper league draft from this past Sunday went in the next coule of days... so until then...

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